Uno de Mayo

[Sing this like a high school cheer]

I have papers
Yes, I do
I have papers
How 'bout you?

Seems like an appropriate song for the big demonstrations on Monday.

Tags
Immigration Protests May 1

Bush Tax Cuts: Soaking the Rich

I heard an interesting commentary on Marketplace.org the day by Steve Moore, of the Wall Street Journal, discussing the effects of the Bush tax cuts. Contrary to what most on the Left believe, and what the MSM continually reports, the Bush tax cuts have substantially move the burden of income tax to the rich and off the poor. The rich are paying more taxes than ever before, and income tax dollars paid to the government are up over the last two years more than ever before in US history.

The Bush tax cuts have been routinely assailed as multimillion dollar giveaways to the Rolls Royce owners of America at the expense of the middle class.

But new IRS statistics on the taxes Americans pay show that George Bush's tax policies actually soak the rich.

It turns out that the income tax burden has substantially shifted onto the wealthy. The percentage of federal income taxes paid by those who make more than $200,000 a year has actually risen from 41% to 47% in recent years.

In other words, the richest 3 out of 100 Americans are now paying close to the same amount in income taxes as the other 97% of workers combined.

It's also a common myth that the rich are hording all the wealth, while the middle class stays stuck in economic quicksand.

The IRS data show that the share of all income earned by the wealthiest 10% of Americans has actually fallen since 2001. The rich are earning less of the total income but paying more of the total taxes.

During this economic expansion, the middle class is growing and becoming more prosperous. About 4 out of 10 Americans now make more than $50,000 a year -- that's up from 3 out of 10 in 1990.

There's more good news. Tax revenues over the past two years are up more than half a trillion dollars — the largest two-year increase in tax collections in history.

Bush cut the capital gains and dividend taxes, but guess what? Now those tax receipts are through the roof in the last two years.

It's called the Laffer Curve: a lower tax rate has increased economic growth and investment and thus the government gets more tax revenues.

The Bush tax cuts have pumped steroids into the US economy and created 5 million new jobs, a surge in new business investment and record worker productivity.

Those are the reasons to make the tax cuts permanent. But for those who really want to sock it to the rich, the Bush tax cuts have done that too.

Tags
Bush Tax Cuts

Leftism: Where Truth is a Fluid Concept

Reading the brouhaha about the recent 'outing' of a left-wing blogger's multiple pseudonymous escapades into flogging his critics and praising himself, I remembered some of the things Dr. John Ray has so often taught us over the years about leftists: They see nothing wrong with lying or deceiving if it furthers their political agenda.

Why aren't they more (I can't actually think of ANY) conservative writers who have been caught fudging the truth for their political agenda.

Tags
Patterico
Hiltzik

Immigration Reform

Living here in southern California, the impact of illegal immigration across our southern border is direct, powerful, and widespread. Each morning on my way to work I pass several 'hiring' areas for illegals were as many as 60 or 80 men wait each morning for work. I drive a pickup truck, so as I pass the men raise their hands and wave, hoping for a day's work and a day's pay. I've never stopped, but often see other trucks doing so.

The debate over immigration reform is passionate. Many people I know want all illegals deported immediately, period. But I see the situation as being much more complex. For a country built by the sweat and blood of immigrants to now want to close the door on immigration is, for me, nearly oxymoronic. As reads the plaque at the base of the Statue of Liberty:

"Give me your tired, your poor,
Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,
The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
Send these, the homeless, tempest-tossed, to me:
I lift my lamp beside the golden door."

I grew up to understand that those words signified a country better and different than all others, a place where everyone, regardless of class, wealth, race, education, religion, or political views were welcome. That is the America I know.

Ronald Reagan spoke often of a "shining city on a hill", and said this in his farewell address:

"I've spoken of the Shining City all my political life... In my mind it was a tall, proud city built on rocks stronger than oceans, windswept, God-blessed, and teeming with people of all kinds living in harmony and peace; a city with free ports that hummed with commerce and creativity. And if there had to be city walls, the walls had doors and the doors were open to anyone with the will and the heart to get here. That's how I saw it, and see it still."

I see it that way, too. "Anyone with the will and the heart to get here". Those are powerful words, with powerful meaning. I am not asserting that Ronald Reagan advocated illegal immigration, but he certainly took a more compassionate view of it than many who are opposed to it now.

We all benefit from immigration, even if it is illegal. Our food is less expensive, our hotels are cleaner and rates are lower, our lawns are mowed, our trees are pruned, our dishes washed, our food prepared, our houses cleaned, and our children are cared for by illegal aliens. Not always are they illegal, but often. Even if you don't think you've hired illegals to work on your landscaping, or to clean your house, the legitimate company you hired may well hire illegals. There is no way to tell by just looking, and let's be honest, most of us don't really want to know.

In my neighborhood, a newer up-scale tract development, I was one of only a handful of residents who hired a licenced contractor to do the work. Even then I am confident that some of the guys working for the contractor were not working legally. Illegal immigrants are everywhere——at least here in the San Diego area—— and there is almost nothing you can do without encountering an illegal, hiring an illegal, benefiting directly or indirectly from the work of an illegal alien.

The recent immigrant protests that have gripped many large cities makes clear the impracticality of some of the proposals being discussed in Washington regarding immigration reform. Estimated at nearly 12 million people, how would we deport them all, let alone find them? If the Senate's version is agreed to, with provisions to treat those who've been here for longer differently, how many of those 12 million will admit that they've only been here for a year or two? They are here illegally anyway, and there are systems in place to create false documents. If their options are to go back to their home country, or to obtain new documents 'proving' their residence, I am confident that most will get new documents.

Moreover, many of these people have built lives here. They've gotten married, had children, (who are US citizens) pay taxes (maybe not income taxes), bought homes, work hard, support their communities, and help build our economy. Many of the students who protested recently did so because the US House version of immigration reform would make THEIR PARENTS felons. These are the same people we see on our roads, at the PTA meetings, in parks, at work, building our pools, and cleaning our houses.

Finally, the biggest impediment to immigration reform is the border itself. If the border is not secured, and none of the plans I've seen would further secure it, then no laws we write to address people already here will matter at all. The first thing we must do, if we want to keep people out, is to secure the border. That will take tens or hundreds of billions of dollars, tens of thousands of troops, and far more political will than I've seen from any politician.

If you haven't figured out my position on immigration reform yet, I support a guest worker program, and amnesty for those already here. I would deport all illegals involved in criminal activity, once they've served out their sentences, but for the vast majority of people living in this country who simply seek a better life, please stay and help us build a better country.

A final footnote: To provide better security against terrorism, I do strongly support a significantly tighter border, including a border-long fence. I am very concerned about terrorists entering this country with WMD's across our very porous southern border. Only a fence and more border security will stop this kind of traffic.


Tags
Immigration Reform
Illegal Immigrants

Impeach Bush??

No doubt you have heard the rising chorus from the Left to impeach George W. Bush. Impeachment is no doubt the #1 priority of the extremists now in control of the Democrat Party. Should the Democrats win control of the US House of Representatives in November, I have no doubt that Articles of Impeachment against the Bush administration will the first item on their agenda. If the Democrats should also win control of the US Senate in November, then Bush's conviction and removal from office is a real possibility.

But on what legal grounds could articles of impeachment be presented? Those advocating impeachment usually cite four arguments that form the legal basis of the pro-impeachment lobby:

1. That Bush violated international and domestic law by invading Iraq;
2. That Bush lied about prewar intelligence, and lied about a connection between Iraq and al Qaeda;
3. That Bush violated international laws and treaties, as well as the US Constitution, by holding "enemy combatants" indefinitely without hearings;
4. That Bush violated the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) of 1978 with "warrantless" wiretapping of American citizens;

On the one hand, I am shocked that the MSM isn't more carefully dismantling these positions, but on the other, not. At least not with the MSM's clear anti-Bush agenda. But let's take these one by one.


First, that Bush violated internation and domestic law by invading Iraq. This is the easiest one to debunk. The United Nations Security Council issued 17 resolutions on Iraq, virtually all of which were repeatedly violated by the former government of Iraq. Article 33 of UN Resolution 687 (April, 1991) states that only through Iraq's acceptance of the terms of UNR687 will a "formal cease-fire" exist. Iraq continually violated this and virtually all subsequent UN resolutions. Therefore, the cease-fire, by definition, and in accordance with UNR 687 ceased to exist when Iraq violated the terms of 687 and the subsequent resolutions.

Despite a decade of 'second chances', UNR 1441 (November, 2002) threatened further "serious consequences" should Iraq not comply with all UN resolutions. Debate ensued over whether further UN action specifically calling for war was legally required prior to any military action, but after ten years and 17 ineffective UN resolutions, and with France, Germany, and Russia virtually guaranteeing a veto over such a resolution, the US, Great Britain, Spain, Italy, Australia, and numerous other countries concluded that no further UN authorization was required to forcably disarm Iraq.

House Joint Resolution 114 (October, 2002), passing overwhelmingly by both the House and Senate, authorized the president to "...use the Armed Forces of the United States as he determines..." as the excerpt below makes clear: (emphasis added)

The Congress of the United States supports the efforts by the President to--

(a) strictly enforce through the United Nations Security Council all relevant Security Council resolutions applicable to Iraq and encourages him in those efforts; and

(b) obtain prompt and decisive action by the Security Council to ensure that Iraq abandons its strategy of delay, evasion and noncompliance and promptly and strictly complies with all relevant Security Council resolutions.

SEC. 3. AUTHORIZATION FOR USE OF UNITED STATES ARMED FORCES.

(a) AUTHORIZATION. The President is authorized to use the Armed Forces of the United States as he determines to be necessary and appropriate in order to

(1) defend the national security of the United States against the continuing threat posed by Iraq; and

(2) enforce all relevant United Nations Security Council Resolutions regarding Iraq.

There is simply no compelling argument that any laws were broken regarding the invasion of Iraq.



Second, that Bush lied about prewar intelligence, and lied about a connection between prewar Iraq and al Qaeda. This one has been repeatedly debunked by many, including The Lost Tooth Society. Recently released and translated documents from prewar Iraqi Intelligence files show a clear link between Iraq and al Qaeda prior to 9-11. The veracity of these documents is still in question, and it will take years to translate and decipher all 55,000 boxes of seized documents, but based on what has been so far translated, the correctness of the prewar intelligence may well be vindcated.

Moreover, the Duelfer Report clearly shows that Saddam Hussein had a strategy to secretly maintain his WMD capabilities while working to use the Oil For Food UN program to bribe his way to the end of sanctions. Once the sanctions were lifted, he would be in an even stronger position to resume his WMD development programs.



Third, that the Bush administration violated international laws and treaties, and the US Constitution by holding indefinitely and without charges "enemy combatants. While the Lost-Tooth Society was initially very troubled by this action, digging into the facts showed that these actions are completely in compliance with all applicable legal standards. Note a key passage from the post above:

The Third Geneva Conventions clearly spell out how prisoners of war shall be treated, and Part 1, Article 4, paragraphs 1 and 2 of the III Geneva Conventions defines precisely who is a "prisoner of war":

"(1) Members of the armed forces of a Party to the conflict, as well as members of militias or volunteer corps forming part of such armed forces.'

(2) Members of other militias and members of other volunteer corps, including those of organized resistance movements, belonging to a Party to the conflict and operating in or outside their own territory, even if this territory is occupied, provided that such militias or volunteer corps, including such organized resistance movements, fulfil the following conditions:[ (a) that of being commanded by a person responsible for his subordinates; (b) that of having a fixed distinctive sign recognizable at a distance; (c) that of carrying arms openly; (d) that of conducting their operations in accordance with the laws and customs of war."

Given the specific conditions of part (2), it seems unlikely that many of those detained at Gitmo could be considered POW's under the Geneva Convention. In fact, the US Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia ruled in Hamdan v. Rumsfeld (July15, 2005) that the Geneva Conventions do not apply to al Qaeda, and that the Geneva Conventions themselves cannot be enforced in US courts.

But ruling in the Rasul v. Bush case in June of 2004, the US Supreme Court held that Gitmo detainees are entitled to challenge their incarceration in federal court, arguing essentially that since the US government holds legal authority over Gitmo and its facilities, that federal courts also hold jurisdiction over the detainees, hence their right to habeas corpus.

The Lost-Tooth Society continues to believe that the indefinite detention of many of these people is unwise, and we welcome the Supreme Court's ruling allowing challenges to detention, but the legality of the detentions is not in question, and is therefore not grounds for impeachment.


Fourth, That Bush violated the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) of 1978 with "warrantless" wiretapping of American citizens. This is no doubt the strongest card in the hand of the pro-impeachment lobby, but is it strong enough to warrant impeachment?

First, some background:

As part of the president's post-9/11 anti-terrorism efforts, he authorized the National Security Agency (NSA) to intercept certain electronic communications from persons outside the USA to persons within the USA, without warrants. FISA is the governing statute regarding this type of surveillance, and around its provisions lie the basis of the argument that the NSA program was was allegedly illegal.

There are very complex and technical legal questions involved here, and my opinions are based on the legal analyses I have read, since I am neither a legal scholar nor an attorney. The central issue revolves around the FISA statute and Separation of Powers issues. FISA is, of course, a statute passed by the Legislative branch of the federal government, not Constitutional provision. Therefore, the applicability of the statute by the legislature, inasmuch as it applys to the Executive branch of the federal government, must be examined in light of Constitutional authority delegated to the Executive branch.

In other words, the Congress cannot by statute constrain the authority of the President beyond those constraints already specified by the Constitution.

Unfortunately for the pro-impeachment crowd, FISA does just that.

There are several excellent authorities that illustrate this point:

John Hinderaker at Powerline writes:

The starting point, of course, is the Constitution. Article II of the Constitution sets out the powers and duties of the President. Some people do not seem to realize that the executive branch is coequal with the legislative and judicial branches. The President has certain powers under the Constitution, and they cannot be taken away or limited by Congressional legislation any more than the President can limit the powers of Congress by executive order.

Article II makes the President Commander in Chief of the armed forces. As such he is preeminent in foreign policy, and especially in military affairs. This was no accident; as Alexander Hamilton wrote in Federalist No. 74, "Of all the cares or concerns of government, the direction of war most peculiarly demands those qualities which distinguish the exercise of power by a single hand." The federal courts have long recognized that when it comes to waging war, the President, not Congress or the courts, is the supreme authority. In Fleming v. Page, 9 How. 603, 615 (1850), the Supreme Court wrote that the President has the Constitutional power to "employ [the Nation's armed forces] in the manner he may deem most effectual to harass and conquer and subdue the enemy."

Powerline also writes of Attorney General Alberto Gonzales' comments in a debate in late January of this year.

Quoting from Powerline the words of the Attorney General:

[F]rom the outset, the Justice Department thoroughly examined this program against al Qaeda, and concluded that the President is acting within his power in authorizing it. These activities are lawful. The Justice Department is not alone in reaching that conclusion. Career lawyers at the NSA and the NSA’s Inspector General have been intimately involved in reviewing the program and ensuring its legality.

The terrorist surveillance program is firmly grounded in the President’s constitutional authorities. *** It has long been recognized that the President’s constitutional powers include the authority to conduct warrantless surveillance aimed at detecting and preventing armed attacks on the United States. Presidents have uniformly relied on their inherent power to gather foreign intelligence for reasons both diplomatic and military, and the federal courts have consistently upheld this longstanding practice.

If this is the case in ordinary times, it is even more so in the present circumstances of our armed conflict with al Qaeda and its allies.

There are other powerful arguments supporting the legality of the NSA program. Charles Krauthammer wrote recently in the Washington Post (registration required) about the legality of the program,

In 1972 the Supreme Court required the president to obtain warrants to eavesdrop on domestic groups but specifically declined to apply this requirement to snooping on foreign agents. Four appeals courts have since upheld presidential authority for such warrantless searches. Not surprisingly, the executive branch has agreed.

True, Congress tried to restrict this presidential authority with the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act of 1978. It requires that warrants for wiretapping of enemy agents in the United States be obtained from a secret court. But as John Schmidt, associate attorney general in the Clinton administration, wrote: "Every president since FISA's passage has asserted that he retained inherent power to go beyond the act's terms." Indeed, President Bill Clinton's own deputy attorney general testified to Congress that "the president has inherent authority to conduct warrantless physical searches for foreign intelligence purposes," then noted a few minutes later that "courts have made no distinction between electronic surveillances and physical searches."

Finally, a panel of five former judges of the secret FISA court recently testified before the Senate Intelligence Committee that the president:

"[D]id not act illegally when he created by executive order a wiretapping program conducted by the National Security Agency (NSA)."

On the surface, the calls for impeachment of president Bush over these matters might be worrisome, but once one investigates the actual facts of the case, and the controlling legal authorities, the foundation justifying such action fizzles.

Tags
"Bush Lied"
Wiretapping
WMD
Gitmo
"Impeach Bush"

Bush's News Conference Tuesday March 21, 2006

I heard the president's news conference live yesterday on my way to work. It was a good session, with the president giving good, thoughtful answers that I figured would be helpful to him. Then I read the headlines later in the day from the MSM, and wondered hw I could have not heard what I heard. They way the MSM made things out to be was completely different than what a listener would have heard had they heard it themselves, as did I. This is just another example of the left-leaning MSM's Bush-bashing.

John Hinderaker at Powerline has a great piece on just this subject.

Tags
Bush
Iraq
News Conference

Global Warming

The debate about human-induced global warming, better known as "anthropogenic global warming", or AGW, continues to be an extremely political and bitter one. Many scientists consider the science settled, and accept as fact that human activity, specifically the release of so-called "greenhouse gases" into the atmosphere are the cause of the apparent rise in temperature of the Earth's atmosphere. However, there are also many scientists who dispute the theory of AGW. Two such scientists recently published studies suggesting that either radiation from space or as a result of a meteor or comet that exploded over remote Russia in 1908.

In the first case, renowned geochemistry professor Jan Veizer of the university of Ottawa overcame years of reluctance (out of fear of reprisals) to report his theory in Geoscience Canada. An excerpt:

The standard explanation for vagaries of our climate, championed by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), is that greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide, are its principal driver. Recently, an alternative model that the sun is the principal driver was revived by a host of empirical observations. Neither atmospheric carbon dioxide nor solar variability can alone explain the magnitude of the observed temperature increase over the last century of about 0.6[degrees]C. Therefore, an amplifier is required. In the general climate models (GCM), the bulk of the calculated temperature increase is attributed to "positive water vapour feedback". In the sun-driven alternative, it may be the cosmic ray flux (CRF), energetic particles that hit the atmosphere, potentially generating cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). Clouds then cool, act as a mirror and reflect the solar energy back into space. The intensity of CRF reaching the earth depends on the intensity of the solar (and terrestrial) magnetic field that acts as a shield against cosmic rays, and it is this shield that is, in mm, modulated by solar activity.

The second example came out just recently by Vladimir Shaidurov of the Russian Academy of Sciences. He says that instead of human activity, the likely source of global warming is the result of something called the Tunguska Meteorite Event, which occured in 1908 in remote Russia.

Quoted from Mosnews.com:

The Tunguska Event, sometimes known as the Tungus Meteorite is thought to have resulted from an asteroid or comet entering the earth’s atmosphere and exploding. The event released as much energy as fifteen one-megaton atomic bombs. As well as blasting an enormous amount of dust into the atmosphere, felling 60 million trees over an area of more than 2000 square kilometres. Shaidurov suggests that this explosion would have caused “considerable stirring of the high layers of atmosphere and change its structure.” Such meteoric disruption was the trigger for the subsequent rise in global temperatures.

Tags
Global Warming
Anthropogenic Global Warming

Free Market Capitalism versus Socialist Collectivism

Seen recently (don't know the author):

"A young woman was about to finish her first year of college. Like so many others her age, she considered herself to be a very liberal Democrat, and was very much in favor of the redistribution of wealth. She was deeply ashamed that her father was a rather staunch Republican, a feeling she openly expressed. Based on the lectures that she had participated in and the occasional chat with a professor, she felt that her father had for years harbored an evil, selfish desire to keep what he thought should be his.

One day she was challenging her father on his opposition to higher taxes on the rich and the addition of more government welfare programs. The self-professed objectivity proclaimed by her professors had to be the truth and she indicated so to her father. He responded by asking how she was doing in school.

Taken aback, she answered rather haughtily that she had a 4.0 GPA, and let him know that it was tough to maintain, insisting that she was taking a very difficult course load and was constantly studying, which left her no time to go out and party like other people she knew. She didn't even have time for a boyfriend, and didn't really have many college friends because she spent all her time studying.

Her father listened and then asked, "How is your friend Audrey doing?"

She replied, "Audrey is barely getting by. All she takes are easy classes, she never studies, and she barely has a 2.0 GPA. She is so popular on campus, college for her is a blast. She's always invited to all the parties, and many times she doesn't even show up for classes because she's too hung over."

Her wise father asked his daughter, "Why don't you go the Dean's office and ask him to deduct 1.0 off your GPA and give it to your friend who only has a 2.0. that way you will both have a 3.0 GPA and certainly that would be a fair and equal distribution of GPA."

The daughter, visibly shocked by her father's suggestion, angrily fired back, "That wouldn't be fair! I have worked really hard for my grades! I've invested a lot of time, and a lot of hard work! Audrey has done next to nothing toward her degree. She played, while I worked my tail off!"

The father slowly smiled, winked and said gently, "Welcome to the Republican Party""

Tags
Free Market Capitalism
Socialism

Katrina Video and the AP "Clarification"

The Associated Press issued a "clarification" of its story earlier this month that erroneously stated that President Bush had been warned prior to the arrival of Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans that the levees could be "breached" by the force of the storm. The story cited video evidence shown widely on television news showing the president being briefed on the potential damage from the hurricane. The only problem with the story, is that, as reported here BEFORE the AP issued its "clarification", never during the briefings did anyone use the word "breech". They discussed 'overtopping' the levees, which is considerably different than 'breeching'.

What is important here, besides the embarrassingly elementary mistake by those responsible at the AP, is the fact that they thought they had an "A-HA!" moment. They thought they had video evidence of Bush lying about the levees, since after the hurricane he stated (paraphrasing) that "nobody anticipated the breeching of the levees". It shows yet again how outrageously biased and uncareful the AP is in general, and how so much of the mainstream press obviously must also be to unquestioningly run this so easily debunked story. This is almost as good as the Rathergate scandal.

Tags
Katrina
"Bush Lied"
Levees breached

Katrina: The Democrats and Bush-Haters Still Don't Know the Difference Between "Breaching" and "Overtopping"

John Hinderaker at Powerline shows us once again how the Left, and more disturbingly major components of the MSM, continue to get their facts wrong regarding hurricane Katrina and the levees in New Orleans. As discussed in this forum in September of 2005,

"Breaching refers to a hole or break in the integrity of the levee, while overtopping describes the water level rising above the top of the levee, but not the failure of the levee itself. The distinction between the two is crucial to the crux of this article."

You can read all the related transcripts and watch all the videos in question, but it is clear from them that the president was correct when he said, on September 1, 2005, "I don't think anybody anticipated the breach of the levees." The only pre-Katrina warnings ever discussed warned of "overtopping" not "breaching" the levees.

Here's an excerpt from Mr. Hinderaker's article:

"Is it possible that all of these reporters have somehow missed all of the post-Katrina discussions about the important differences between levee overtopping (widely predicted before Katrina hit, including by CNN), and breaching of the levees, which apparently resulted from design or construction defects? It seems almost inconceivable that all of those involved in misreporting the video can claim ignorance."

Tags
Katrina
FEMA
Levees
New Orleans levee breaks

An Intelligent View on the Muslim Cartoons

The prevailing view among westerners on the controversy surrounding the publishing of cartoons that show images of the Profit Muhammad seems to be 'why are Muslims so offended over some cartoons?' That's not, apparently, how the Muslim community sees it.

Nadia Maiwandi, a staff writer for the North County Times (San Diego), wrote an intelligent and thought-provoking piece about this issue. Nothing justifies the deaths and rioting that the reaction to these cartoons has brought about, but this controversy shows once again that making fun of somone else's deeply held beliefs is disrespectful at best, and most likely deeply offensive.

An excerpt from Ms. Maiwandi's article:

"Since the publication of the cartoons and the subsequent protests, I've heard non-Muslims ask why it's OK to ridicule Christianity and Judaism but not Islam. Simply put, it's not. Mocking monotheism isn't an Eastern value, period, whether it's Islam, Christianity or Judaism on the receiving end. People who ridicule those two religions in the West are far more likely to be adherents of those religions than Muslims."

Global Warming and the "Hockey Stick" Debate

Will it never end? Lou Hissink shows so very clearly how the global warming argument is based on a false analysis of global temperature data.

Tags
Global Warming
The Hockey Stick Debate

A French Leftist Laments the Idea-less American Left

The Nation published recently a translated article by Bernard-Henri Lévy wherein he takes the American Left to task for its lack of ideas. A common criticizm has been that the Left of today simply offer opposition and obstructionism to the Conservatives. Apparently, the French elitists agree.

Here is how it begins:

Nothing made a more lasting impression during my journey through America than the semi-comatose state in which I found the American left.

I know, of course, that the term "left" does not have the same meaning and ramifications here that it does in France.

And I cannot count how many times I was told there has never been an authentic "left" in the United States, in the European sense.

But at the end of the day, my progressive friends, you may coin ideas in whichever way you like. The fact is: You do have a right [right wing]. This right, in large part thanks to its neoconservative battalion, has brought about an ideological transformation that is both substantial and striking.


And the fact is that nothing remotely like it has taken shape on the other side--to the contrary, through the looking glass of the American "left" lies a desert of sorts, a deafening silence, a cosmic ideological void that, for a reader of Whitman or Thoreau, is thoroughly enigmatic. The 60-year-old "young" Democrats who have desperately clung to the old formulas of the Kennedy era; the folks of MoveOn.org who have been so great at enlisting people in the electoral lists, at protesting against the war in Iraq and, finally, at helping to revitalize politics but whom I heard in Berkeley, like Puritans of a new sort, treating the lapses of a libertine President as quasi-equivalent to the neo-McCarthyism of his fiercest political rivals; the anti-Republican strategists confessing they had never set foot in one of those neo-evangelical mega-churches that are the ultimate (and most Machiavellian) laboratories of the "enemy," staring in disbelief when I say I've spent quite some time exploring them; ex-candidate Kerry, whom I met in Washington a few weeks after his defeat, haggard, ghostly, faintly whispering in my ear: "If you hear anything about those 50,000 votes in Ohio, let me know"; the supporters of Senator Hillary Clinton who, when I questioned them on how exactly they planned to wage the battle of ideas, casually replied they had to win the battle of money first, and who, when I persisted in asking what the money was meant for, what projects it would fuel, responded like fundraising automatons gone mad: "to raise more money"; and then, perhaps more than anything else, when it comes to the lifeblood of the left, the writers and artists, the men and women who fashion public opinion, the intellectuals--I found a curious lifelessness, a peculiar streak of timidity or irritability, when confronted with so many seething issues that in principle ought to keep them as firmly mobilized as the Iraq War or the so-called "American Empire" (the denunciation of which is, sadly, all that remains when they have nothing left to say).

Tax Cuts Hurting the Deficit??

It seem that tax receipts for January exceeded spending by almost $21 billion dollars, on "strong receipts". How can anyone still argue that lower taxes mean lower revenue? The tax cuts have proven once again to be revenue enhancing by stimulating financial activity. The US Treasury takes in a smaller piece of a bigger pie.

(From Reuters via The Drudge Report)

Tags
Tax cuts
Deficit

"Obscene Profits" by Major Oil Companies

From the Washington Post (Subscription required) in October regarding the gigantic profits reported by the oil companies (this from their 3Q results) comes this article discussing the reasons behind these profits, and what the real profit story is about. As Exxon-Mobile reports another record year and quarter—at least in dollars—try to keep in mind their modest profit margins on huge revenue.

An excerpt:

“…in 2004 Exxon Mobil earned more money -- $25.33 billion -- than any other company on the Fortune 500 list of largest corporations. But by another measure of profitability, gross profit margin, it ranked No. 127.”

A $9.9 billion quarterly profit is mostly a function of Exxon Mobil's size. It had sales of $100 billion this quarter, more than any other U.S. company. At its current rate of growth, Exxon Mobil will be the biggest U.S. corporation this year by revenue, bigger than Wal-Mart Stores Inc., which had $288.19 billion in revenue last year. Generally, the bigger the company, the bigger the bottom line.

Even so, many companies smaller than Exxon Mobil "earn" more, depending on what measure is used.

Most financial institutions, such as commercial banks, are routinely more profitable than Exxon Mobil was in its third quarter. For example, Exxon Mobil's gross margin of 9.8 cents of profit for every dollar of revenue pales in comparison to Citigroup Inc.'s 15.7 cents in 2004. By percentage of total revenue, banking is consistently the most profitable industry in America, followed closely by the drug industry.

Altria Group, the maker of Marlboro and other cigarettes, made 22 cents for every dollar of revenue in 2004, and pharmaceutical company Merck made 25.3 cents for every dollar of revenue in 2004.”

Tags
Exxon-Mobile
Obscene Profits
Oil Company Profits

Pre-Invasion Iraqi Documents

Steven Hayes at the Weekly Standard writes today of the apparently imminent release of 39 translated Iraqi documents from the Saddam Hussien government to House Intelligence Committee Chairman Pete Hoekstra. These could prove to be important in understanding the relationship—if any—between the Taliban, al-Qaeda, and Iraq, although Mr. Hayes admits that these 39 documents represent a very small sample of the roughly 2 million captured in the weeks following the toppling of the former dictator's government. Writes Mr. Hayes:

It is important to remember that this set of documents is a tiny percentage of the Iraqi documents that have been translated (.078 percent of the 50,000) and a mere sliver of the overall document take of approximately 2 million. Whatever emerges from this group may not be a representative sample of the overall document takes.

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Secret Iraqi Documents

Final Report of David M. Barrett, Independent Council in the Cisneros Affair

Is there a government cover-up going on regarding the release of the Clinton-era Independent Council's final report on the Henry Cisneros investigation? According to a recent Fox News article, there may be. Here's an excerpt:

"WASHINGTON — Potentially explosive allegations from a 10-year independent counsel investigation may never see the light of day due to an appropriations bill negotiation that has some conservatives crying foul.

The final report of David M. Barrett, an independent counsel appointed in 1995 to investigate potential felonies committed by one-time Clinton administration Housing and Urban Development Secretary Henry Cisneros, is tentatively scheduled for release on Jan. 19, Barrett told FOXNews.com.

However, Barrett and others say, thanks to an amendment to the November judiciary appropriations bill, key elements in the final report, which was completed in August 2004 and has been sitting with a three-judge panel at the U.S. District Court of Appeals in Washington D.C. ever since, may be heavily redacted before its release.

"As it currently stands, the report will not be released in its entirety," said Barrett, who didn't want to speculate why or which portions of the report may not be made public. One decade and some millions of taxpayers' dollars later, he said he is disappointed that the report may not reflect his careful and diligent efforts.

"I believe after 10 years and the expense of $22 million, the public has the right to see the entire report and make their own judgments," he said.

As the contents of the report have been sealed, Barrett is unable to offer details, but sources say the most serious of the allegations concerns, in part, the use of the Internal Revenue Service under the Clinton administration to intimidate political foes. The charges in the report could embarrass former members and associates of the Clinton White House, including former first lady and Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., say the sources.

"Some people have said it contains some serious allegations, and when people see the report, they can decide for themselves," Barrett said."

According to the article, the portions in question deal with persons who "had not been publicly indicted or named." Privacy, especially for those not charged and who never will be charged should be protected, and I, for one, strongly support such concerns. However, there is disagreement on the level of "redaction" of the report, and legislation dealing with the matter is still a concern. The article goes on to state:

"Sens. Charles Grassley, R-Iowa and Dorgan introduced an amendment to the judiciary appropriations bill that would have released all portions of the report, with deletions only for "clearly unwarranted invasion of privacy."

But the language worked out in the subsequent House-Senate conference and in the final bill gave much more discretion to the court to redact individuals' names, which critics contend, ensures that much of Section Five and the most serious charges would be left out of the final report."

I get very nervous whenever the Clinton's are involved in a criminal case, and the potential for political "shenanigans". Until the report is released, hopefully with only minimal redaction, we will never know if there is any fire beneath the smoke.





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Special Prosecutor
Clinton Independent Council
Clinton
Henry Cisneros
David M. Barrett

The Best Quote I've Seen in a Long Time

Kate O'Beirne of the National Review Online has a new book out called "Women Who Make the World Worse : and How Their Radical Feminist Assault Is Ruining Our Schools, Families, Military, and Sports".

She was interviewed by Katheryn Jean Lopez, also of NRO about her book. I was stuck by this statement Ms O'Beirne made:

"I have long thought that if high-school boys had invited homely girls to the prom we might have been spared the feminist movement."

What an interesting idea.

The Housing Bubble Myth: A Construct of the Left?

Everywhere you look today, it seems like people are talking about a "housing bubble". The MSM has been hyping this story for several years now, and while the market is definitely slowing down, there is no real evidence that the "bubble" is about to burst. Carl Steidtmann, chief economist at Deloitte Research wrote an interesting piece in July of this year that goes into great detail on why there is no housing bubble to burst. The following month Neil Barsky, managing partner of Alson Capital Partners, LLC., wrote another myth-busting piece in the Wall Street Journal (here via Nations Building News Online) that illustrates why past and current housing markets differ, and why the "bubble" won't burst anytime soon. In fact, he warns of a shortage of housing.

Despite these strong and convincing arguments, there are many who are convinced that the housing market is way over inflated, and is due for a major 'correction' soon. Their reasons for such a belief are many, but I can't help but notice that many seem to also hold generally liberal political views. I have no doubt that there are many conservatives who agree that a housing bubble is real and about to burst, but my suspicions are that that group is quite a small subset of the housing bubble crowd. I would go further and argue that these conservative 'bubblers' are probably the analytical type who's view is that the easy access to mortgage loans seemingly without regard for credit worthiness has 'artificially' brought too many buyers into the market, pushing up home prices to unsustainable levels. No doubt there is some truth to that viewpoint, but I believe that segment of the housing market is a significant minority.

The bigger question, and the real focus of this post is the apparent political component to this important debate.

Their position goes essentially like this: First, the GOP, led by GWB and Alan Greenspan made access to credit very easy by lowering short term interest rates, and more importantly, by pumping lots of liquidity into the economy, which made borrowing and buying more available to people who would not have had access to mortgages in the past due to credit and/or income issues. Second, after these people bought into the market with low or no-interest loans, assuming that the market would continue to appreciate, the GOP-controlled Congress changed bankruptcy laws to make personal bankruptcy more difficult, and consequently foreclosure easier. Couple this with the false perception of a poor economy and rising unemployment rates, and you have the beginnings of a "bubble".

Then, as rates began to rise (note the evil Alan Greenspan again) from their historical lows, many of the people with adjustable loans found that they could not make the payments, and also, now that credit began to tighten, could not refinance their loans, could not declare bankruptcy, and were foreclosed. This allowed evil, rich Republicans to buy these foreclosed properties at a giant discount, then sell them later for quick profit. Our friends at the Daily Kos illustrate this point clearly.

Unfortunately, the facts just don't bear this scenario out. Yes, bankruptcy laws have changed, and yes, rates are rising slightly, but are still very low. More importantly, the economy is very solid. Add in the opinions of the experts (above and below) along with the fact that regional economic conditions are far more indicative of healthy or not-so-healthy housing market, and it becomes clear that the only thing bursting is the MYTH of a housing bubble.

Regarding regional situations, I live in one of the hottest real estate markets in the country: San Diego County California, and know it well from a buyer's perspective. I bought my first house here in 1996 at the bottom of the last housing bubble crash. In the years prior, the economy in San Diego was heavily influenced by military spending. There was (and still is) a large Navy and Marine presence, and the large industrial economy was mostly defense-related. In the very large scale-back of defense spending and base closings following the fall of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War, San Diego, as were many other markets, was hit very hard, and the recession of the early 1990's put the housing market here on its heels. Foreclosures were everywhere, as defense workers moved elsewhere to find jobs, they had bigger mortgages than their homes were worth, and many just walked away from them.

It was sad, and I couldn't bring myself to profit from their misfortune. I ended up buying a new, 2,400 square foot home for $169,000 that had stood unoccupied for more than a year. It was so bad then that the original builder of the tract had even gone bankrupt. There is no doubt that there was a housing bubble here then, and equally no doubt in my mind that no bubble exists now. I still own that house today, and it is worth about $680,000 based on a search today.

But to get back to the people who believe in the "bubble", it is that envy drives much of their enthusiasm for a housing 'bubble'. As Dr. John Ray writes, envy and and a strong need for "equality" is the driving force behind much of the leftist agenda. Many people are angry that so many have gotten rich (on paper anyway) from the recent strong appreciation in housing prices. They believe that it is unfair that many are left out of the housing market since prices have risen faster than incomes. They seem to actually relish the idea of a 'bubble', and are even hoping for a crash to 'show those rich people' that they are not so rich after all. It is really the classic liberal cause; If somebody is getting rich, then somebody is getting poor as a result. Too bad these people don't understand the concept of wealth creation.

Their anger toward anyone who disagrees with their view is becoming as vicious as the anger directed at those of us who remain unconvinced of anthropomorphic global warming. Consider this respected financial columnist from a San Diego area paper who recently wrote that a housing 'bubble' doesn't exist here in San Diego. Be sure to read the comments from readers and see if you don't agree that it is unwise to rile these people up. In fact, Mr. Chamberlin, who, by the way I have read and followed for years and highly respect, wrote a follow-up piece wherein he described the vitriol sent his way over the original column. Be sure not to miss the comments to that column as well.

Is there a housing bubble? No, the facts don't support it. Will housing prices rise or fall? They are softening somewhat here in San Diego, and time-to-market is lengthening, but I do not believe a crash in prices is coming since the data I have seen does not support such a conclusion. But there certainly seems to be many who are hoping for such a crash, and, not surprisingly, many of these people have a political agenda aligned with the Left.



Tags
Housing Bubble
Real Estate Bubble

More on the NSA Electronic Evesdropping Program

As the NY Times continues to facilitate the illegal leaking of classified information, thus degrading the ability of the United States government to protect Americans from foreign terrorisim, the blogosphere is repleat with legal experts who can speak elequently on the legality of the program, and are clearly a much better source for information than the hideously biased MSM.

Some excellent sources:

Powerline
Baseball Crank (practicing attorney)
Volokh Conspiracy (via Baseball Crank)
Cass Sunstein (via Baseball Crank)



Tags
NSA
Surveillance
FISA